Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
